Rubio ruled out of the Veepstakes (probably).

My continuing fascination with the GOP Veepstakes continues, with the story today that Mitt Romney’s campaign team, after only a “preliminary review”, are not seriously vetting the junior Senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, instead focusing on someone who matches better Romney’s temperament and desire for experience.

In its own way, this is quite important. I’ve speculated on Mitt Romney’s choice of vice presidential nominee before, and Rubio was certainly an early favourite for many. Young, charismatic, equipped with an eloquence that would make grown men cry, and a family straight out of central casting. For Romney’s presidential team, this was apparently not enough.

Rubio would certainly have been a popular choice. He is a rising star of the conservative movement and a darling of the Tea Party, regularly topping straw polls when grass-roots activists are asked for their choice of nominee. He would have fired up the Republican base, and likely would have helped deliver a healthy portion of the increasingly important Hispanic/ Latino electorate. His state of Florida, a crucial swing state, would have been in play even more than it already is.

Things are not, alas, quite that simple. Romney and his campaign team have consistently expressed their key prerequisite in a vice presidential nominee to be readiness and suitability for high office, not simple popularity. Moreover, Rubio did not enjoy the same sort of relationship Romney enjoys with other frontrunners for the VP nomination, such as Ohio Senator Rob Portman and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Romney and Rubio have only campaigned together once, back in April, whereas Portman and Pawlenty have been regulars on the campaign trail. Finally, Rubio is indeed very young and inexperienced. He has been a Senator for little over a year. Only today he has launched his autobiography, An American Son, as he seeks to make more of a name for himself.

While it is right to highlight the importance of the Hispanic vote, equally it should not be forgotten how important the white working-class vote is for Romney, and the importance of getting them out to vote for him come election day. Romney has been swinging through the Rust Belt these past few days, impressing white voters in important swing states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania that do not have a significant Hispanic voting bloc. If they turn out in force come November, he may not need minority voters, or at least as much. This is in part explained by Barack Obama’s deep and enduring unpopularity among non-college educated white (and working class) voters. Rubio's ability to help deliver some Hispanic voters was secondary to the need for a VP nominee who would have been viewed by the electorate as a person of gravitas and experience. 

The announcement that Marco Rubio is not being vetted (he has not been asked to complete a questionnaire or submit personal finance documents, as normally happens) may just be a wheeze to throw us off course. There might still be time to vet him thoroughly a little later on. Perhaps, but this seems unlikely. With Rubio out, attention once again turns to Ohio Senator Rob Portman (still my favourite to get the nod), and now, increasingly, Tim Pawlenty. Both are experienced and have a similar personality to Romney, and enjoy a strong personal relationship with him. And maybe, just maybe, with Rubio out, Barack Obama will be breathing a little sigh of relief.