France's first round.

A few quick thoughts on the first round of France’s presidential election. First off, round one goes to the Socialist candidate Francois Hollande, who received over 28% of the vote, according to the most recent exit polls. This puts him in a strong position to go on to win the presidency in May; indeed, no single poll has thus far shown Sarkozy ahead of his rival come the second round, with Hollande enjoying a lead of anywhere between 6% and 16% (and mostly 10%).

Second place went to the incumbent Gaullist president, the ailing Nicolas Sarkozy. He took around 25% of the vote: again, results are slowly trickling in. Victory in the second round is of course not impossible, but it will assuredly be difficult for him. Mr Sarkozy is nothing if not tenacious, however; most pundits concur that he is a formidable campaigner. History may in theory be on the president’s side. Since 1965, there have been eight presidential elections in France; in three of these, the eventual winner only came second in the first round of polling. Despite this, the numbers do not look good for Sarkozy; Hollande’s lead seems near unassailable in the second round polling.

Yet the headline figure is the roughly 20 per cent of votes received for Marine Le Pen and her Front National. This figure, were it to hold, is far higher than many first-round polls had suggested, meaning most had underestimated her popularity. It would constitute the most votes the Front National had ever received in a presidential election, and indeed the highest total for any nationalist party in Europe.

From the far-right to the far-left: around 11.7% voted for the former Trotskyist and Communist-backed Jean-Luc Mélenchon, an undoubtedly disappointing result for the man who had seemingly run an energetic and populist insurgent’s campaign. Though a compelling orator and excellent campaigner, his hopes of helping to shape post-election France will have been dampened.

Finally, perennial candidate François Bayrou scored around 9%, leaving him stuck in fifth place. In the previous presidential election of 2007, Mr Bayrou took almost 19% of the vote in the first round, allowing him to act as something of a kingmaker. There may be something in the fact that he was, broadly speaking, the only candidate to confront France’s increasingly worrisome economic situation.

All the talk now will turn to how the votes of Le Pen, Mélenchon and Bayrou will be divided between the two frontrunners in the second round run-off. It seems safe to say that almost all of Mélenchon’s supporters will go straight to the Socialist Hollande. Le Pen’s voters will likely split, though not evenly. Some polls suggest around 40% will go to president Sarkozy, with another 27% going to Hollande. If this seems curious, many Le Pen supporters would not self-identity or think of themselves as necessarily right-wing. Sarkozy hatred exists among Front National supporters, too. Sarkozy may be able to collect Le Pen voters by talking up Islam and immigration; Hollande by playing up a soft message of protectionism and anti-globalisation. The challenge for Sarkozy and Hollande will be to retain their core support, hold the vital centre ground, and yet appeal to this great mass of divided voters. We wait to find out how they will both meet this challenge.