Here come the Veepstakes!

Now that Mitt Romney has all but secured the Republican nomination for President, political anoraks such as myself get to turn away and indulge in a little Veep-stakes speculation – or, to the uninitiated, fruitlessly guess who Romney will pick as his running-mate on the Republican ticket.

It’s unquestionably an important choice for the former Governor of Massachusetts, particularly in light of the fact that recent polling shows him to have among the highest unfavourability ratings of any presidential nominee in memory. A competent, charismatic or respected vice presidential running-mate would in theory be able to complement, offset, or, if need be, distract attention away from the flaws or weaknesses of the presidential nominee. Mitt Romney certainly has his strengths as a candidate, but the wider electorate – Democrats and Republicans – have been exposed to many of his lesser qualities: a certain provincial aloofness, a disconnect due to his vast personal wealth, and an uninspiring and unexciting personality. For others, the fact that he ruled as a liberal Republican of already true-blue Massachusetts is nigh-on unforgivable. He has also been a notorious flip-flopper of any number of issues. In short, pick wisely, and Romney could help ameliorate some of this.

What we won’t be getting is a repeat of 2008, in which John McCain plucked from obscurity the woefully unprepared intellectual disgrace that was Sarah Palin, seemingly almost on a whim. Romney will be thorough and meticulous, poring over the data on each candidate with diligence and care. Different candidates will be able to better deliver the votes of certain states or crucial demographics. Now that the hard slog of the Republican nomination is (effectively) over, might Romney be able to relax a little and choose someone he is truly comfortable with?

The issue of demographics is important. There is the so-called ‘gender gap’, with women preferring Obama to Romney 49% to 39% on the latest numbers. As the Wall Street Journal reports, the racial gap is far wider: Obama is ahead among blacks 94%-3%, and among Hispanics 64%-24%. This should not be a one-way analysis, however: Romney leads among whites and men. Moreover, the historical precedents of picking a particular demographic to broaden overall appeal are mixed, Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 perhaps being the best example. People do not tend to vote according to gender. It also risks looking nakedly tokenistic.

So, without further ado, here are the runners and riders in the 2012 Veep-stakes, from the plausible to the implausible, the outside chances to the please-God-nos. 

Marco Rubio

The Florida Senator is a darling of the Tea Party movement, young, charismatic and popular. Hispanic (his parents were Cuban refugees) he could help Romney begin to overturn his poll deficits with minority voters, particularly in such a crucial swing state. One negative against him is that his compelling personal narrative appears to have been a little embellished. In fact, as The Washington Post reported, his parents fled Cuba over two-and-a-half years before Castro came to power in 1959. He is also politically inexperienced, serving less than two years in office. Rubio could, hypothetically speaking, stand a great chance at winning the nomination come 2016. On top of all of this, he has announced he would turn down any Romney VP offer down, so that seems to be that.

Chris Christie

The current Governor of New Jersey apparently considered seeking the Republican nomination himself, before turning the opportunity down. Christie played down expectations, believing he'll still be in the Governor's Mansion come November, although he has freely admitted he would accept a place on the ticket were he to be asked. A burly and charismatic political brawler, he could really take the fight to Barack Obama. He is, however, comparatively speaking, another North-Eastern moderate, something the Republican grassroots would likely be hostile to. 

Rob Portman

The junior Senator from Ohio possesses significant governmental experience and knowledge, serving both in George W. Bush's administration and as director of the OMB. A reliably safe pair of hands. Portman endorsed Romney before the South Carolina primary back in January. A political moderate by temperament, he is said to already enjoy warm personal relations with Romney, and could help deliver Ohio, a crucial swing in any election. There is, though, no getting around the fact that, as well as being relatively unknown, he is an exceptionally boring man. He remains, however, an early favourite for the ticket. 

Paul Ryan

The Wisconsin congressman and chairman of the important House Budget Committee, Ryan would constitute a real risk for the Romney team. Adored by his own party's grassroots and Tea Party activists, he would at the same time act as an extremely potent magnet for every single Democratic attack ad. No less a figure than the President has slammed Ryan's budget plan as 'thinly veiled social Darwinism' for its proposals to dramatically slash government spending, none more so than for Medicaid, the highly popular program which provides health care to those on low incomes. Romney would have enough trouble without picking Ryan. 

Bob McDonnell

The Governor of Virginia, a state which voted Democrat in 2008 for the first time since LBJ. He won handsomely in 2009 with the simple slogan "Bob's for jobs", and has remained broadly popular since. A retired U.S. army officer with a family straight out of central casting. He has a laser-like focus on what I will lazily call bread-and-butter issues, which could help Romney. He aroused significant controversy however when he supported a bill earlier this year stating that all women seeking a first-trimester abortion must have a vaginal probe inserted into them. McDonnell eventually declared he could not sign the bill into law until state Republicans softened the language, eventually managing to piss everybody off. Some have written his chances off, but I wouldn't be so sure.

Several other names have been touted: the Governor of Louisiana Bobby Jindal; Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson; South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley; Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels; and so on. These names remain, for now, long shots. FDR's Vice President John Nance Garner once described his ill-defined job as being "not worth a bucket of warm piss." Perhaps not. Many of us will still be waiting with bated breath to find out just who Romney picks.